The newest market knowledge from analyst Canalys has reported that PC shipments skilled a surge in first quarter of 2025 (Q1 2025), pushed by producers accelerating deliveries to the US in anticipation of initial tariff announcements. Small and mid-sized organisations which have but to refresh their PCs earlier than 14 October, when mainstream help from Home windows 10 ends, could expertise a worth hike as a result of tariffs.

The analyst agency reported that complete shipments of desktops, notebooks and workstations grew 9.4% to 62.7 million items in Q1 2025. Pocket book shipments, which embody cell workstations, grew to 49.4 million items, up 10% in contrast with a 12 months in the past. Shipments of desktops rose 8% to 13.3 million items

Ishan Dutt, principal analyst at Canalys, which is now a part of Omdia, famous that each Lenovo and HP grew shipments to the US within the first quarter by round 20% and 13%, respectively. “This pre-emptive technique allowed producers and the channel to refill forward of potential price will increase, boosting sell-in shipments regardless of in any other case secure end-user demand,” Dutt stated.

Canalys famous that the key PC makers started provide chain diversification throughout Trump’s first time period. It expects them to proceed transferring away from China in the direction of Vietnam, Thailand and India, regardless of these international locations additionally facing the imposition of tariffs.

Based on Canalys, by the top of 2025, most main PC producers are anticipated to have accomplished the shift of US-bound shipments out of China, aiming to reinforce provide chain resilience and mitigate the impression of tariffs. 

For example, HP CEO Enrique Lores acknowledged in the course of the firm’s newest quarterly earnings that 90% of the corporate’s merchandise bought within the US could be made exterior of China by the top of this 12 months. 

Throughout the 27 February earnings name for its quarterly outcomes, Jeff Clarke, chief working officer at Dell, was requested concerning the tariffs the US administration was imposing on China and the way that might have an effect on Dell. Based on the transcript of the earnings name posted on Seeking Alpha, Clarke responded saying that the corporate had constructed an industry-leading provide chain that’s globally various, agile and resilient that helps minimise the impacts of commerce rules and tariffs.

“We’ve taken our digital provide chain, our digital twins truly, utilizing some AI modelling to take a look at each doable state of affairs that you may think to assist us perceive how we optimise our community and the way we try this within the least period of time,” he stated, warning that no matter tariff can’t be mitigated are considered as enter prices, which can require changes in costs.

When requested concerning the tariffs throughout Lenovo’s quarterly earnings name, the corporate’s chairman and CEO, Yuanqing Yang, claimed the US tariffs had been a bonus. Within the transcript of the earnings name posted on Seeking Alpha, he stated: “It’s not a drawback, however in all probability a bonus for Lenovo.

“We’ve got already constructed a really robust and a singular enterprise mannequin. We name it the ODM+ mannequin. We do each in-house manufacturing and outsourcing manufacturing. And we’ve got a world manufacturing footprint.” Yang stated Lenovo operates 30 manufacturing services in Argentina, Brazil, India, Japan, Hungary, Germany, Mexico and the US. It is usually constructing a brand new facility in Saudi Arabia. “In comparison with our competitors, we’re extra versatile and resilient to adapt to totally different eventualities.”

Because of this when confronted with surprising challenges, Lenovo stated it might transfer buyer orders between websites. The corporate’s provide chain resiliency relies on proudly owning the availability chain finish to finish. It has additionally put in place a geodiversity programme to allow sourcing of commodities from places apart from China and Taiwan.

In a doc printed in 2023 ODM+, Lenovo stated: “As a part of Lenovo’s world/native mannequin, constructing units domestically dramatically reduces the freight miles these merchandise incur, offering extra environment friendly and sustainable transportation choices.”

Though main manufacturing international locations have been focused with tariffs, Ben Yeh, senior analyst at Canalys, famous that their charges stay comparatively aggressive in contrast with China’s. “These international locations have proven a willingness to barter, elevating the chance that the tariffs could ultimately be lowered or waived, whereas China has responded swiftly with a brand new spherical of reciprocal tariffs. In consequence, manufacturing relocation plans are nonetheless ongoing and are unlikely to alter considerably earlier than additional implementation particulars are introduced,” he added.

The analyst agency warned that companies, particularly small and mid-sized organisations, could face some pressure which will decelerate the transition away from Home windows 10 forward of the October 2025 end-of-support (EOS) date.

A Canalys ballot of PC resellers reported that 14% consider their small and mid-sized enterprise prospects should not conscious of Home windows 10 finish of help, whereas an extra 21% stated their prospects are conscious however haven’t any plans to improve.

“For purchasers in these conditions, the delay in planning means they’re more likely to face a better price surroundings when the time involves refresh their PC fleets,” Dutt added.

Canalys additionally predicted that the impression of tariffs on client demand can be higher, as buying a costlier PC will should be prioritised in opposition to different spending classes going through worth will increase.